- The Patriots hold 9 picks in the 2011 draft, including a league-high 6 in the first three rounds- 17, 28, 33, 60, 74, 92.
- Biggest needs- OLB, DE, OL, RB, DB
Thoughts-
- Needs Coincide with Strength of Draft- The Patriots have clear first priority needs in the front seven of the defense, which has underperformed over the last few years. Their pass rush is the most significant weakness, and they will look to address it with a rush linebacker and/or a five-technique defensive end. Luckily for them, this draft is stacked with pass rushers that project to those positions. Most mock drafts have 13-16 DL/OLB going in the first 32 picks (compared to 8 in each of the last two years).
- Players who project as 3-4 DEs at the top of the draft this year include Marcel Dareus, J.J. Watt, Cam Jordan, Muhammad Wilkerson, Corey Liuget, Cam Heyward, Marvin Austin, and Allen Bailey.
- Players who project as 3-4 OLBs at the top of the draft this year include Von Miller, Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, Justin Houston, Akeem Ayers, Brooks Reed, and Jabeel Sheard.
- Implications- In most years, only a few top-value players projected as fits in the Patriots' front seven. This would make it more necessary to reach if they wanted to address their needs, and often they would wait until later rounds to pick OLBs and DEs. This year, it is probable that they are high on at least a few of the players in this crop, and because it is so deep, they are guaranteed to have multiple shots at them with picks at 17, 28, and 33. It would be shocking if none of the players listed above ended up in a Patriots uniform.
- Trades- Bill Belichick loves to trade, and he has plenty of ammunition this year. If the Patriots lock in on one player who they want, as long as he falls out of the top seven, they have the ability to go get him and still maintain more high picks than most teams. Inversely, if the Patriots have three or four players with similar grades while they are picking at 17, they could easily move down 5-8 spots, pick up some picks, and still acquire the same quality player (this was what they did with Devin McCourty last year). Essentially, with Bill Belichick's trading acumen and their stockpile of picks, the Patriots will be able to find a way to acquire any player from the end of the top ten onwards. This is great news for Patriots fans because it means that they will probably feel good about whoever they actually draft. (Example: If the Patriots pass on an opportunity to trade for Robert Quinn or J.J. Watt, and instead pick a lower-rated prospect like Jabeel Sheard or Cam Heyward, it would probably be because the Pats' liked the latter prospects enough to stay put).
- Trading into Next Year- The Patriots only have five picks in next year's draft. Bill Belichick loves adding value to future drafts (3rd rounder last year turned into pick 33 this year, Joe Staley turned into Jerod Mayo, etc.). Look for them to trade either pick 28 or 33 into a first-rounder next year. Teams who want quarterbacks will look at these picks as an opportunity to grab their guy (Mallet, Ponder, Locker, Dalton, Kaepernick) before QB-needy teams draft in the second round. Pick 28 is lucrative because a team drafting a franchise QB will want the extra contract option provided by the first round, and pick 33 is a likely target because they will have an entire night between the end of the first round and the beginning of the second to find the best offer. If the right trade is made, the Patriots could end up with a top ten pick next year and still get a guy they like in this range with their other pick.
- Impact of Lockout- The lockout makes this draft harder from two perspectives. First, the inability to pick up free agents before the draft lessens the flexibility of drafting. In previous years, the Patriots would sign some veteran free agents to fill their biggest needs, so that if the draft unfolded in a certain way, they would not be forced to reach for a certain player out of necessity. This year, they couldn't make those signings (except Marcus Stroud), so they might have to lock in on taking a DE, an OLB, an OL, and an RB in the first three or four rounds of the draft. Secondly, with the inability of rookies to be at team facilities and rookie camp, it will make it much harder for them to have an impact in their first year. Last year, third round pick Taylor Price missed the first month of the offseason and didn't play until week 17. This year, all of the rookies will be struggling to catch up with the playbook (while the coaches struggle to get to know their skills), so it would be very surprising to see as much playing time from the rookies as we saw last year. As far as impact on draft strategy, the Pats may be more inclined to draft players who already have experience in 3-4 schemes, or at positions that require less adjustment (i.e. RB).
- Offensive Line Approach- A lot of mock drafts have the Pats taking an O-lineman in the first round. I agree that there is a big need, with uncertainty and old age all over the line, but I think they should wait until rounds 2-3 to go O-line. If they pick a tackle in the first round, it will send a message to free agent Matt Light that they don't want him back. If they pick a guard, it will make negotiations with Logan Mankins even more difficult. In the next few rounds, there are a lot of versatile offensive linemen, and if they pick up 2 or 3, they won't hurt their chances of retaining Light/Mankins, and they will be more prepared for however the o-line situation unfolds. They could easily be forced to start a rookie on the interior or exterior this year, but it is unclear how likely that is, so rounds two and three seem like the best fit. Also, this strategy fits with the strength of the position in the draft.
- Luxury Pick- With so many picks, the Patriots could take a player who doesn't fill a pressing need early on. Some speculate that they will take a QB of the future and groom him behind Brady. Others (including me) think they might pick Mark Ingram or Mikel Leshoure at the end of the first round to give them a dynamic threat in the backfield. Ingram is falling on a lot of draft boards and he could make the Patriots offense almost unbeatable. Think of the weapons at Brady's/Belichick's disposal--Ingram, Woodhead, Green-Ellis, Welker, Branch, Hernandez, Gronkowski. Scary.
- Belichick Factor- Bill Belichick is unpredictable and smarter than anyone doing a mock draft. Nothing, and nobody, is off the table. He is going to wheel, deal, and find hidden gems like no one else. Remember how shocked people were with the Mayo and McCourty picks? Remember their rookie seasons? Expect more of the same in 2011.
Projections-
- With that as pretext, I will try in vain to predict what Belichick will do with his picks. I took the above factors into consideration, along with my valuation of individual players, and came up with these two best-case potential scenarios for the 2011 Patriots draft. The common themes, reflecting what I believe the Patriots need to come away with from this draft: an elite front seven player of top-15 value on their big board, a 2012 first round pick, Mark Ingram if he is available, and offensive line depth in the middle rounds.
- Scenario 1-
- 17. J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
- 28. Traded for 2011 4th and 2012 1st
- 33. Mark Ingram, HB, Alabama
- 60. Will Rackley, G/OT, Lehigh
- 74. Orlando Franklin, G/OT, Miami
- 92. Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
- 123. Shareece Wright, CB, USC
- 159. Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma State
- 193. Henry Hynoski, FB, Pitt
- 4th round pick from trade. Greg Romeus, OLB, Pitt
- Scenario 2-
- 10 (from WAS for 17 and 60). Robert Quinn, OLB, UNC
- 28. Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
- 33. Traded for 2011 5th and 2012 1st
- 74. John Moffitt, G, Wisconsin
- 92. Shane Vereen, HB, Cal
- 125. Jah Reid, G/OT, Central Florida
- 159. Cedric Thornton, DE/DT, Southern Arkansas
- 193. Mark Herzlich, OLB, BC
- 5th round pick from trade. Alex Green, HB, Hawaii
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