Final Mock Draft- April 28, 2011; Top 40 picks

1. Carolina- Cam Newton, QB, Auburn, 6-5, 244- Consensus projection for Carolina; they like him and it fits a need.
2. Denver- Marcel Dareus, DT, Auburn, 6-3, 319- Recent reports have them taking Von Miller. For the sake of the Broncos, I'm sticking with Dareus. Miller is a 3-4 OLB and they need 4-3 players. Dareus fits; Miller does not.
3. Buffalo- Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M, 6-3, 246- Unlike in Denver, Miller is a great fit for the Bills. They had only 27 sacks last year and Miller will be an impact OLB from Day 1. 
4. Cincinnati- A.J. Green, WR, Georgia, 6-4, 211- If they want to keep Carson Palmer and Jonathan Joseph, Green will be the pick.
5. Arizona- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU, 6-0, 218- Almost went with Amukamara--I think more teams than we think have him as number one corner--but Peterson is too elite to slip out of top five.
6. Cleveland- Robert Quinn, DE, UNC, 6-4, 265- Speculation that the Patriots might trade here. If they do, it's between Quinn and (my Patriots sleeper:) Prince Amukamara. But as with most Patriots speculation, it probably won't happen, and Cleveland will take Quinn over Julio Jones here.
7. San Francisco- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska, 6-0, 205- I feel like new head coaches don't take cornerbacks with their first pick, but I'm not sure why, and this makes a lot of sense for the 49ers, with a weak secondary, and reported uncertainty about Blaine Gabbert.
8. Tennessee- Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri, 6-4, 234- Tennessee has Rusty Smith at QB; they'll jump if Gabbert is still available here.
9. Dallas- J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin, 6-5, 290- Some smart Cowboys writer says they will take Watt. Other top consideration here would be Tyron Smith (OT). Watt fills a big need on D-Line. 
10. Washington- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama, 6-3, 220- Washington needs a wide out and would love for Jones to fall to them. If he doesn't, look for a trade.
11. Houston- Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri, 6-4, 263- Aldon Smith will be Wade Phillips' new DeMarcus Ware.
12. Minnesota- Jake Locker, QB, Washington, 6-3, 231- Apparently they like Locker in Minnesota. Hard to pass on Nick Fairley at this point, but their current QBs are Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb.
13. Detroit- Anthony Castanzo, OT, BC, 6-7, 313- Most drafts have Tyron Smith as the first tackle off the board, but Castanzo projects better to left tackle, and the Lions need someone better than Jeff Backus protecting Matt Stafford's blind side. The Lions offense could be very good next year and into the future with Castanzo at tackle.
14. St. Louis- Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn, 6-2, 297- Fairley falls due to (unwarranted) concerns about size, motor, and the fact that he was a one-year wonder. Fairly is sort of like the Dez Bryant of this year's draft. St. Louis has a big need at DT, and Fairley will have an immediate impact.
15. Miami- Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama, 5-9, 215- Ingram was a sure-fire top 15 pick until a couple months ago. I'm not convinced the knee problems are really a concern. Every mock draft in the country had Ingram going here at some point this offseason, but nobody does now. So, if I'm right, I will look smart. If not, expect the pick to be Mike Pouncey.
16. Jacksonville- Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue, 6-4, 274- I want to give them Daquan Bowers because he would be a steal here, but Jacksonville likes high-character players with full college careers. Kerrigan will fit in nicely next to Alualu.
17. New England- Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple, 6-4, 308- He is the best fit size-wise for the Patriots 3-4 defense, and Mike Reiss seems to think they like him a lot. I'll take his word. This is a stretch at 17, but that's how the Patriots roll.
18. San Diego- Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal, 6-4, 286- Relieved by the Patriots pick, San Diego takes Cam Jordan, who some have going as high as 9 to Dallas. San Diego needs a 3-4 DE and Jordan played in that scheme at Cal.
19. New York Giants- Tyron Smith, OT, USC, 6-5, 310- Perhaps the best lineman in the draft falls to a lineman-needy Giants team. If not Smith, look for them to take Pouncey or Carimi.
20. Tampa Bay- Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa, 6-4, 285- Again, I want to put Bowers here, but for a lot of teams there is enough D-line depth in this draft that it isn't worth taking a risk. Clayborn is a safe pick and will start right away.
21. Kansas City- Jabeel Sheard, Pitt, DE, 6-3, 264- Sheard replaces Vrabel at OLB and the Chiefs have a scary pass-rushing combo of Sheard and Tamba Hali.
22. Indianapolis- Nate Solder, OT, Colorado, 6-8, 307- Peyton Manning needs better protection and Solder is probably the best player available in this scenario.
23. Philadelphia- Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado, 6-2, 210- Good corner to pair up with Asante Samuel; my other two thoughts are Danny Watkins and Daquan Bowers.
24. New Orleans- Daquan Bowers, DE, Clemson, 6-3, 276- Finally. New Orleans can take a chance and Bowers might explode if handled right by the coaching staff and the trainers.
25. Seattle- Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois, 6-2, 298- I needed a place to put Liuget. Expect a trade here if Seattle doesn't like Brandon Harris or a QB. 
26. Baltimore- Cam Heyward, DE, OSU, 6-5, 295- Baltimore likes Heyward and he could go as high as 17, so they will be happy to take him here.
27. Pittsburgh (trade with Atlanta)- Mike Pouncey, G, Florida, 6-5, 303- I didn't mean to let Pouncey fall this far, but once he got by the 15-20 range there wasn't a good fit. If he is here, the Steelers would love to put him next to Maurkice, where they need help protecting Roethlisberger.
28. Oakland (trade with New England)- Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada, 6-4, 233- Apparently Kaepernick is number one on the Raiders' board, so they would give up a 2012 first and a 2011 third to get him at 28. The Patriots would take that trade in a second.
29. Chicago- Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State, 6-6, 311- Sherrod falls further than he should and Chicago gets an immediate starter at tackle.
30. New York Jets- Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona, 6-3, 263- Rex Ryan will like Reed's playing style, and the Jets need help all over the front seven. If not Reed, then Phil Taylor or a DE. 
31. Atlanta (trade with Pittsburgh)- Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame, 6-6, 258- Matt Ryan needs weapons, and Rudolph would be a welcomed upgrade over Tony Gonzalez.
32. Green Bay- Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA, 6-3, 255- Ayers gives them a versatile pass rusher opposite from Clay Matthews. 
33. New England- Danny Watkins, G, Baylor, 6-3, 310- Watkins, 26 years old, will compete to start at RG and will be an insurance policy at LG behind Logan Mankins. 
34. Buffalo- Allen Bailey, DE, Miami, 6-4, 288- With Miller and Bailey, the Bills will have turned their biggest weakness--front seven--into their biggest strength.
35. Andy Dalton, QB, TCU, 6-3, 220- If Palmer leaves, they will need a QB. If he doesn't, they still will need a QB, because Palmer is on the downside of a down career.
36. Denver Broncos- Marvin Austin, DT, UNC, 6-2, 309- Bolstering the D-line, a la Tampa Bay last year.
37. Cleveland- Aaron Williams, DB, Texas, 6-0, 204- Gives them first round value starter opposite Joe Haden.
38. Arizona- Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami, 6-3, 240- Hankerson can make incredible plays downfield, and the passing game needs a threat next to Larry Fitzgerald.
39. Tennessee- Titus Young, WR, Boise State, 5-11, 174- I love Titus Young, and the Titans have uncertainty at WR. this would be a fun offense to watch grow with Gabbert, Young, Kenny Britt, and Chris Johnson.
40. Dallas- Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin, 6-7, 315- The Cowboys take a risk by skipping on a tackle in the first round but Carimi falls to them in the second--this would go a long way towards strengthening the trenches in Dallas.

New England Patriots Draft Preview

Review-

• The Patriots hold 9 picks in the 2011 draft, including a league-high 6 in the first three rounds- 17, 28, 33, 60, 74, 92.

• Biggest needs- OLB, DE, OL, RB, DB

Thoughts-

• Needs Coincide with Strength of Draft- The Patriots have clear first priority needs in the front seven of the defense, which has underperformed over the last few years. Their pass rush is the most significant weakness, and they will look to address it with a rush linebacker and/or a five-technique defensive end. Luckily for them, this draft is stacked with pass rushers that project to those positions. Most mock drafts have 13-16 DL/OLB going in the first 32 picks (compared to 8 in each of the last two years). 
• Players who project as 3-4 DEs at the top of the draft this year include Marcel Dareus, J.J. Watt, Cam Jordan, Muhammad Wilkerson, Corey Liuget, Cam Heyward, Marvin Austin, and Allen Bailey. 
• Players who project as 3-4 OLBs at the top of the draft this year include Von Miller, Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, Justin Houston, Akeem Ayers, Brooks Reed, and Jabeel Sheard.
• Implications- In most years, only a few top-value players projected as fits in the Patriots' front seven. This would make it more necessary to reach if they wanted to address their needs, and often they would wait until later rounds to pick OLBs and DEs. This year, it is probable that they are high on at least a few of the players in this crop, and because it is so deep, they are guaranteed to have multiple shots at them with picks at 17, 28, and 33. It would be shocking if none of the players listed above ended up in a Patriots uniform.

• Trades- Bill Belichick loves to trade, and he has plenty of ammunition this year. If the Patriots lock in on one player who they want, as long as he falls out of the top seven, they have the ability to go get him and still maintain more high picks than most teams. Inversely, if the Patriots have three or four players with similar grades while they are picking at 17, they could easily move down 5-8 spots, pick up some picks, and still acquire the same quality player (this was what they did with Devin McCourty last year). Essentially, with Bill Belichick's trading acumen and their stockpile of picks, the Patriots will be able to find a way to acquire any player from the end of the top ten onwards. This is great news for Patriots fans because it means that they will probably feel good about whoever they actually draft. (Example: If the Patriots pass on an opportunity to trade for Robert Quinn or J.J. Watt, and instead pick a lower-rated prospect like Jabeel Sheard or Cam Heyward, it would probably be because the Pats' liked the latter prospects enough to stay put).

• Trading into Next Year- The Patriots only have five picks in next year's draft. Bill Belichick loves adding value to future drafts (3rd rounder last year turned into pick 33 this year, Joe Staley turned into Jerod Mayo, etc.). Look for them to trade either pick 28 or 33 into a first-rounder next year. Teams who want quarterbacks will look at these picks as an opportunity to grab their guy (Mallet, Ponder, Locker, Dalton, Kaepernick) before QB-needy teams draft in the second round. Pick 28 is lucrative because a team drafting a franchise QB will want the extra contract option provided by the first round, and pick 33 is a likely target because they will have an entire night between the end of the first round and the beginning of the second to find the best offer. If the right trade is made, the Patriots could end up with a top ten pick next year and still get a guy they like in this range with their other pick. 

• Impact of Lockout- The lockout makes this draft harder from two perspectives. First, the inability to pick up free agents before the draft lessens the flexibility of drafting. In previous years, the Patriots would sign some veteran free agents to fill their biggest needs, so that if the draft unfolded in a certain way, they would not be forced to reach for a certain player out of necessity. This year, they couldn't make those signings (except Marcus Stroud), so they might have to lock in on taking a DE, an OLB, an OL, and an RB in the first three or four rounds of the draft. Secondly, with the inability of rookies to be at team facilities and rookie camp, it will make it much harder for them to have an impact in their first year. Last year, third round pick Taylor Price missed the first month of the offseason and didn't play until week 17. This year, all of the rookies will be struggling to catch up with the playbook (while the coaches struggle to get to know their skills), so it would be very surprising to see as much playing time from the rookies as we saw last year. As far as impact on draft strategy, the Pats may be more inclined to draft players who already have experience in 3-4 schemes, or at positions that require less adjustment (i.e. RB). 

• Offensive Line Approach- A lot of mock drafts have the Pats taking an O-lineman in the first round. I agree that there is a big need, with uncertainty and old age all over the line, but I think they should wait until rounds 2-3 to go O-line. If they pick a tackle in the first round, it will send a message to free agent Matt Light that they don't want him back. If they pick a guard, it will make negotiations with Logan Mankins even more difficult. In the next few rounds, there are a lot of versatile offensive linemen, and if they pick up 2 or 3, they won't hurt their chances of retaining Light/Mankins, and they will be more prepared for however the o-line situation unfolds. They could easily be forced to start a rookie on the interior or exterior this year, but it is unclear how likely that is, so rounds two and three seem like the best fit. Also, this strategy fits with the strength of the position in the draft. 

• Luxury Pick- With so many picks, the Patriots could take a player who doesn't fill a pressing need early on. Some speculate that they will take a QB of the future and groom him behind Brady. Others (including me) think they might pick Mark Ingram or Mikel Leshoure at the end of the first round to give them a dynamic threat in the backfield. Ingram is falling on a lot of draft boards and he could make the Patriots offense almost unbeatable. Think of the weapons at Brady's/Belichick's disposal--Ingram, Woodhead, Green-Ellis, Welker, Branch, Hernandez, Gronkowski. Scary.

• Belichick Factor- Bill Belichick is unpredictable and smarter than anyone doing a mock draft. Nothing, and nobody, is off the table. He is going to wheel, deal, and find hidden gems like no one else. Remember how shocked people were with the Mayo and McCourty picks? Remember their rookie seasons? Expect more of the same in 2011. 

Projections-

• With that as pretext, I will try in vain to predict what Belichick will do with his picks. I took the above factors into consideration, along with my valuation of individual players, and came up with these two best-case potential scenarios for the 2011 Patriots draft. The common themes, reflecting what I believe the Patriots need to come away with from this draft: an elite front seven player of top-15 value on their big board, a 2012 first round pick, Mark Ingram if he is available, and offensive line depth in the middle rounds.

• Scenario 1-
• 17. J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
• 28. Traded for 2011 4th and 2012 1st
• 33. Mark Ingram, HB, Alabama
• 60. Will Rackley, G/OT, Lehigh
• 74. Orlando Franklin, G/OT, Miami
• 92. Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
• 123. Shareece Wright, CB, USC
• 159. Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma State
• 193. Henry Hynoski, FB, Pitt
• 4th round pick from trade. Greg Romeus, OLB, Pitt
• Scenario 2-
• 10 (from WAS for 17 and 60). Robert Quinn, OLB, UNC
• 28. Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
• 33. Traded for 2011 5th and 2012 1st
• 74. John Moffitt, G, Wisconsin
• 92. Shane Vereen, HB, Cal
• 125. Jah Reid, G/OT, Central Florida
• 159. Cedric Thornton, DE/DT, Southern Arkansas
• 193. Mark Herzlich, OLB, BC
• 5th round pick from trade. Alex Green, HB, Hawaii