1. Carolina- Cam Newton, QB, Auburn, 6-5, 244- Consensus projection for Carolina; they like him and it fits a need.
2. Denver- Marcel Dareus, DT, Auburn, 6-3, 319- Recent reports have them taking Von Miller. For the sake of the Broncos, I'm sticking with Dareus. Miller is a 3-4 OLB and they need 4-3 players. Dareus fits; Miller does not.
3. Buffalo- Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M, 6-3, 246- Unlike in Denver, Miller is a great fit for the Bills. They had only 27 sacks last year and Miller will be an impact OLB from Day 1.
4. Cincinnati- A.J. Green, WR, Georgia, 6-4, 211- If they want to keep Carson Palmer and Jonathan Joseph, Green will be the pick.
5. Arizona- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU, 6-0, 218- Almost went with Amukamara--I think more teams than we think have him as number one corner--but Peterson is too elite to slip out of top five.
6. Cleveland- Robert Quinn, DE, UNC, 6-4, 265- Speculation that the Patriots might trade here. If they do, it's between Quinn and (my Patriots sleeper:) Prince Amukamara. But as with most Patriots speculation, it probably won't happen, and Cleveland will take Quinn over Julio Jones here.
7. San Francisco- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska, 6-0, 205- I feel like new head coaches don't take cornerbacks with their first pick, but I'm not sure why, and this makes a lot of sense for the 49ers, with a weak secondary, and reported uncertainty about Blaine Gabbert.
8. Tennessee- Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri, 6-4, 234- Tennessee has Rusty Smith at QB; they'll jump if Gabbert is still available here.
9. Dallas- J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin, 6-5, 290- Some smart Cowboys writer says they will take Watt. Other top consideration here would be Tyron Smith (OT). Watt fills a big need on D-Line.
10. Washington- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama, 6-3, 220- Washington needs a wide out and would love for Jones to fall to them. If he doesn't, look for a trade.
11. Houston- Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri, 6-4, 263- Aldon Smith will be Wade Phillips' new DeMarcus Ware.
12. Minnesota- Jake Locker, QB, Washington, 6-3, 231- Apparently they like Locker in Minnesota. Hard to pass on Nick Fairley at this point, but their current QBs are Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb.
13. Detroit- Anthony Castanzo, OT, BC, 6-7, 313- Most drafts have Tyron Smith as the first tackle off the board, but Castanzo projects better to left tackle, and the Lions need someone better than Jeff Backus protecting Matt Stafford's blind side. The Lions offense could be very good next year and into the future with Castanzo at tackle.
14. St. Louis- Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn, 6-2, 297- Fairley falls due to (unwarranted) concerns about size, motor, and the fact that he was a one-year wonder. Fairly is sort of like the Dez Bryant of this year's draft. St. Louis has a big need at DT, and Fairley will have an immediate impact.
15. Miami- Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama, 5-9, 215- Ingram was a sure-fire top 15 pick until a couple months ago. I'm not convinced the knee problems are really a concern. Every mock draft in the country had Ingram going here at some point this offseason, but nobody does now. So, if I'm right, I will look smart. If not, expect the pick to be Mike Pouncey.
16. Jacksonville- Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue, 6-4, 274- I want to give them Daquan Bowers because he would be a steal here, but Jacksonville likes high-character players with full college careers. Kerrigan will fit in nicely next to Alualu.
17. New England- Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple, 6-4, 308- He is the best fit size-wise for the Patriots 3-4 defense, and Mike Reiss seems to think they like him a lot. I'll take his word. This is a stretch at 17, but that's how the Patriots roll.
18. San Diego- Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal, 6-4, 286- Relieved by the Patriots pick, San Diego takes Cam Jordan, who some have going as high as 9 to Dallas. San Diego needs a 3-4 DE and Jordan played in that scheme at Cal.
19. New York Giants- Tyron Smith, OT, USC, 6-5, 310- Perhaps the best lineman in the draft falls to a lineman-needy Giants team. If not Smith, look for them to take Pouncey or Carimi.
20. Tampa Bay- Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa, 6-4, 285- Again, I want to put Bowers here, but for a lot of teams there is enough D-line depth in this draft that it isn't worth taking a risk. Clayborn is a safe pick and will start right away.
21. Kansas City- Jabeel Sheard, Pitt, DE, 6-3, 264- Sheard replaces Vrabel at OLB and the Chiefs have a scary pass-rushing combo of Sheard and Tamba Hali.
22. Indianapolis- Nate Solder, OT, Colorado, 6-8, 307- Peyton Manning needs better protection and Solder is probably the best player available in this scenario.
23. Philadelphia- Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado, 6-2, 210- Good corner to pair up with Asante Samuel; my other two thoughts are Danny Watkins and Daquan Bowers.
24. New Orleans- Daquan Bowers, DE, Clemson, 6-3, 276- Finally. New Orleans can take a chance and Bowers might explode if handled right by the coaching staff and the trainers.
25. Seattle- Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois, 6-2, 298- I needed a place to put Liuget. Expect a trade here if Seattle doesn't like Brandon Harris or a QB.
26. Baltimore- Cam Heyward, DE, OSU, 6-5, 295- Baltimore likes Heyward and he could go as high as 17, so they will be happy to take him here.
27. Pittsburgh (trade with Atlanta)- Mike Pouncey, G, Florida, 6-5, 303- I didn't mean to let Pouncey fall this far, but once he got by the 15-20 range there wasn't a good fit. If he is here, the Steelers would love to put him next to Maurkice, where they need help protecting Roethlisberger.
28. Oakland (trade with New England)- Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada, 6-4, 233- Apparently Kaepernick is number one on the Raiders' board, so they would give up a 2012 first and a 2011 third to get him at 28. The Patriots would take that trade in a second.
29. Chicago- Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State, 6-6, 311- Sherrod falls further than he should and Chicago gets an immediate starter at tackle.
30. New York Jets- Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona, 6-3, 263- Rex Ryan will like Reed's playing style, and the Jets need help all over the front seven. If not Reed, then Phil Taylor or a DE.
31. Atlanta (trade with Pittsburgh)- Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame, 6-6, 258- Matt Ryan needs weapons, and Rudolph would be a welcomed upgrade over Tony Gonzalez.
32. Green Bay- Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA, 6-3, 255- Ayers gives them a versatile pass rusher opposite from Clay Matthews.
33. New England- Danny Watkins, G, Baylor, 6-3, 310- Watkins, 26 years old, will compete to start at RG and will be an insurance policy at LG behind Logan Mankins.
34. Buffalo- Allen Bailey, DE, Miami, 6-4, 288- With Miller and Bailey, the Bills will have turned their biggest weakness--front seven--into their biggest strength.
35. Andy Dalton, QB, TCU, 6-3, 220- If Palmer leaves, they will need a QB. If he doesn't, they still will need a QB, because Palmer is on the downside of a down career.
36. Denver Broncos- Marvin Austin, DT, UNC, 6-2, 309- Bolstering the D-line, a la Tampa Bay last year.
37. Cleveland- Aaron Williams, DB, Texas, 6-0, 204- Gives them first round value starter opposite Joe Haden.
38. Arizona- Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami, 6-3, 240- Hankerson can make incredible plays downfield, and the passing game needs a threat next to Larry Fitzgerald.
39. Tennessee- Titus Young, WR, Boise State, 5-11, 174- I love Titus Young, and the Titans have uncertainty at WR. this would be a fun offense to watch grow with Gabbert, Young, Kenny Britt, and Chris Johnson.
40. Dallas- Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin, 6-7, 315- The Cowboys take a risk by skipping on a tackle in the first round but Carimi falls to them in the second--this would go a long way towards strengthening the trenches in Dallas.
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