Is Wes Welker Overrated?

I was recently browsing the web for football news or analysis, desperate for content in this early summer news drought, and came across an offseason article, written by Walter Cherepinski of WalterFootball.com, ranking the "Top 10 Most Overrated NFL Players." This topic piqued my interest. As I scrolled down the rankings, I found myself in agreement with most of the list. Stanford Routt, LeGarrette Blount, and DeAngelo Hall, for example, would all make my "most overrated" list as well: flashy numbers guys who lack the all-around football fundamentals to deserve the acclaim they receive. Most overrated guys fit that bill exactly. According to Cherepinsky, none more than the man who topped his list, New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker. Cherepinsky believes that Welker, the NFL's most prolific pass-catcher, produces such gaudy numbers mostly because of his role within the Patriots system.

Does Brady make Welker?

According to Cherepinsky, Welker "doesn't have the talent to be a No. 1 wideout," let alone one of the best wideouts in the league. His value comes from the system, not from himself, and "his ability to be as effective in another scheme is very debatable." He is "just" a slot receiver, a "really, really good slot receiver, but a slot receiver nonetheless," which alone differentiates him from the greats who do their work on the outside, says Cherepinsky. Moreover, he has 26 drops over the last two years, behind only Brandon Marshall in that category. What would be a more accurate description of Welker's skills? According to Cherepinksy, the best comparison is Miami Dolphins slot receiver Davone Bess, who has averaged 65 receptions for 667 yards over his four year career, and who wouldn't crack a list of the top fifty receivers in football, let alone the top five. "Who's to say Bess wouldn't post 100-plus receptions playing in Welker's spot with Brady," Cherepinsky retorts.

With Welker's contractual situation in focus this offseason, many Patriots fans and football writers have questioned the ultimate value of the four-time Pro-Bowler. Is he a replaceable cog in the passing machine that is the New England offense, or is he a game-changing playmaker who deserves to be discussed among the top five wide receivers in the league?

As somebody who has watched Welker play in both Miami and New England, and who has seen the Patriots passing machine in operation with a different set of parts, I have to believe the latter is much closer to the truth. Welker has filled a role that few could fill, and his numbers are not the result of the supposed "system." Although he is cut from a different mold than most receivers at the top level, Welker is nonetheless an elite offensive player whose skills are not easily replaceable.

Take, for example, the criticism that Welker's value is diminished because he is a slot receiver. Cherepinksy takes the fact that usually slot receivers are not very good, and unreasonably concludes that slot receivers therefore can not be very good by the essence of their being slot receivers. He is better fit to attack from a different position on the field; it makes him different, but not worse. Sure, Welker couldn't do what Andre Johnson does if he lined up on the outside, but Johnson wouldn't do what Welker does if he lined up inside. And it's not like Welker avoids double-teams and match ups with top cornerbacks on the inside; he draws the same level of defensive attention as other top wideouts. Welker has made his superstar impact from a non-traditional role, but it is a superstar impact nonetheless. The 6,100 receiving yards and 317 first downs over the past five seasons came at face value, without any positional modifiers.

If there's a "system," why is Welker
its only product?

What about the Patriots offense? Is it easier to produce as a slot receiver in New England, where the short passing game often replaces the running game? Could Davone Bess replace Welker without a significant drop-off in production? Do slot receivers have it made in New England? The numbers from the three years preceding Welker's arrival to New England suggest not. In 2004 not a single receiver was able to use the supposed system to achieve statistical success: David Givens led the team with 56 receptions. In 2005, Troy Brown played the slot and hauled in only 39 catches for 446 yards, and the Patriots tight ends combined for only 53 receptions that year--nobody was producing in the middle of the field. The next year, Brown recorded an underwhelming 43 catches for 384 yards. Sure, Brown was old, but if that position is a hot bed for production, why couldn't somebody like the then-26 year old Jabar Gaffney have won the starting job? If the Patriots offensive system can inflate the production of mediocre players so easily, why did none of the many slot receivers and tight ends in and out of New England in the earlier years turn into stars? Quite simply, because they were mediocre, and no system in professional football can do as Cherepinsky claims. It was not until 2007, the year of the arrival of Welker, that the Patriots offense became, well: The Patriots Offense. He came into New England and put up numbers that no wide receiver in his role had ever approached.

If the data suggests anything, it is that Welker is the variable that makes the Patriots offense great, rather than the opposite. Consider that in 2008, when Tom Brady missed the season with a torn ACL, Welker grabbed 111 passes for 1165 yards from Matt Cassell. Surely, Davone Bess wouldn't put up those numbers playing with Matt Cassell. Welker is a difference maker.

That is why Bill Belichick chose to give Welker the franchise tag this year despite having talented slot receiver Julian Edelman in waiting. Belichick has watched them both play the position for years, and the margin is worth $9.5 million--the price of keeping Welker--to him. Welker is irreplaceable, as much so as the other top five wide receivers in the league (save Calvin Johnson, who is in a league of his own). Welker isn't a product of the Patriots system or of Tom Brady. He benefits from both, without a doubt, like any great player benefits from the factors around his skill-set, but he can do things that few else ever did or ever could do.

Wes Welker showed more in Miami than is
often recognized.

If it isn't the system, though, why wasn't he a star before he came to New England? Why did his career path shoot up with the change of teams? It seems that plenty of factors could explain his transition. First, It is quite ordinary for receivers to take a few years to develop in the NFL. Welker broke out in his fourth season, but that was after being exclusively a special teams player in his rookie season, and primarily a special teams player in his second season. By his third, he emerged as a top option at wide receiver and led the Dolphins with 67 receptions. Additionally, his catch rate (67.7%) and yards per catch (10.3) that year were not far from his eventual career averages. So, Welker had one full season to show his offensive skills before 2007, and in that season, despite playing with the historically awful duo of Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington at quarterback, he put up numbers that compare favorably with plenty of eventually elite wide receivers in their earliest years in the league. Once in New England, in only his second season as a full-time offensive player, he blossomed into a star, having adjusted to the NFL game and having found a place where his abilities were finally recognized. Welker's career path in no way suggests that he was on a path to mediocrity. The fact that he did that in New England does not in any way prove that he is an inflated product of favorable surroundings.

Wes Welker; Superstar

So, why does Wes Welker put up such monstrous numbers and get mentioned in any discussion of the top five receivers in the NFL? Because, despite being 5'8" and having the straight line speed of a tight end, he has the quickness, smarts, and elusiveness to have a superstar impact. As a route runner, he is better than anybody at picking up defenses and making decisions within his option routes. That ability, combined with his change-of-direction skills, and his on-field awareness, make him a matchup nightmare for defenses, to a similar degree as any receiver in the league.

Wes Welker is not a system player, and he is not an externality of Brady's greatness. Over the past five years, he has been the second most valuable player on the most dominant regular season team of that era. Few wideouts could have done what Welker has done in his years with the Patriots. Nothing that happens in the future, which could include a drop off in production due to his age and the abundance of weapons finally around him in New England, should diminish his legacy as one of the best receivers in the league over that timespan. Wes Welker is a special player, and, if anything, is not duly recognized for his greatness.